What is that whistling sound?

Via Sorghum Crow at Sorghum Crow's General Store, The Telegraph:

Saudi Arabia has refused to cut interest rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve for the first time, signalling that the oil-rich Gulf kingdom is preparing to break the dollar currency peg in a move that risks setting off a stampede out of the dollar across the Middle East.

[snip]

"This is a very dangerous situation for the dollar," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.

"Saudi Arabia has $800bn (£400bn) in their future generation fund, and the entire region has $3,500bn under management. They face an inflationary threat and do not want to import an interest rate policy set for the recessionary conditions in the United States," he said.

The Saudi central bank said today that it would take "appropriate measures" to halt huge capital inflows into the country, but analysts say this policy is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to the collapse of the dollar peg.

As a close ally of the US, Riyadh has so far tried to stick to the peg, but the link is now destabilising its own economy.

[snip]

There is now a growing danger that global investors will start to shun the US bond markets. The latest US government data on foreign holdings released this week show a collapse in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, with outright net sales of US Treasuries.

The danger is that this could now accelerate as the yield gap between the United States and the rest of the world narrows rapidly, leaving America starved of foreign capital flows needed to cover its current account deficit - expected to reach $850bn this year, or 6.5pc of GDP.

And also from The Telegraph, China gets in the act:

The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.

[snip]

Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.

Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.

Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.

It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.

Via JJ at Unrepentant Old Hippie, the Canadian 'loonie' dollar:

TORONTO - Boosted by high commodity prices and a weakening U.S. dollar, the loonie reached parity with the greenback Thursday for the first time in nearly 31 years, promising to boost the energy and import sectors and give consumers cheaper vacations but spelling more trouble for Canada's industrial heartland.

The loonie, which has been gaining on its American counterpart since bottoming out below 62 cents in early 2002, has recently been on a spectacular run, up from 95 cents at the start of September and from under 90 cents last spring.

And via Atrios at Eschaton:

Losses from sub-prime mortgages have far exceeded "even the most pessimistic estimates", US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has said.

His comments to a US finance committee come two days after the Fed cut base interest rates to 4.75% from 5.25%.

[snip]

Mr Bernanke told the committee that US mortgage woes were set to continue - especially with adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs).

Proceedings for about 320,000 foreclosures - or repossessions - were begun in each of the first two quarters of 2007 he said, against an average of 225,000 per quarter in the past six years.

"With house prices still soft and many borrowers of recent-vintage sub-prime ARMs still facing their first interest rate resets, delinquencies and foreclosure initiations in this class of mortgages are likely to rise further," he said.

Mr Bernanke added that it was difficult to be precise about how many repossessions would take place, but he said that in normal circumstances about half of homeowners who were given repossession notices ended up losing their homes.

"That ratio may turn out to be higher in coming quarters because the proportion of sub-prime borrowers, who have weaker financial conditions than prime borrowers, is higher," Mr Bernanke said.

Do we start stuffing our mattresses with Euros? Or do we start burying jars of gold coin about our backyards?

Can anyone tell us how much trouble we are in?