Monday, September 10, 2007

Nawaz Sharif deported soon after he arrived in Pakistan

As the U.S. helps Musharraf keep his grip on power. Bhutto is being brought in as a balance to prevent the citizens from revolting and provide stability, but the military will still be in complete control:

KARACHI - Pakistan has established itself over the past six years as the strongest link in the West's chain of influence in South and Central Asian countries whose internal stability is linked to progress toward Western goals in the region, especially in the US-led "war on terror".

Pakistan's military establishment has used this for both its de facto and de jure rule and for its broader strategic regional goals. Therefore, when US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte arrives in Pakistan on Wednesday, after visiting Afghanistan, he will finalize a blueprint for a fresh and aggressive two-pronged US approach to defeat radical Islamists in Afghanistan and to nurture a new popular political leadership in Pakistan.

The major contractor of US policy in Pakistan will remain the military, which, under President General Pervez Musharraf, aims for a smooth political transition of power from civilian-military rule to complete civilian rule.

Amid much publicity, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif arrived in Pakistan on Monday after seven years in exile, only to be deported within a few hours. Lebanese leader Saad Hariri and Saudi Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz were in Islamabad to persuade Sharif to return to exile in Saudi Arabia to avoid muddying the region's political waters.

The Supreme Court's decision to allow Sharif - ousted in a coup by Musharraf in 1999 - to return to Pakistan came at a time when Washington and Islamabad were putting the final touches to the formation of a consensus government between Musharraf and another former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto. Under this arrangement, Musharraf is likely to be re-elected as president, after which he will shed his uniform and position as army chief of staff and share power with Bhutto. The aim is to bring more stability to Pakistan, as Musharraf currently faces widespread popular opposition.

The real battle in the "war on terror" can then begin. Negroponte is expected to spell out Washington's aims in very clear terms to Pakistani authorities. He will provide precise targets for Pakistan to tackle, such as al-Qaeda and Taliban bases in Pakistan, and if Islamabad fails to act within a given timetable, North Atlantic Treaty Organization-led forces from across the border in Afghanistan will take matters into their own hands.

[snip]

The political endgame is expected this month, with Musharraf announcing that Parliament will re-elect him as president, in uniform, and at the same time he will announce a date this year to change into civilian clothes. A new chief of army staff will also be named.

Washington is absolutely right in including the army in its plans, despite the popular political face of Bhutto, as militants will remain a threat across the country. In fact, Bhutto will need the army to protect her and the government's security. In such a "protected" atmosphere, Bhutto, Washington's ace card, will be beholden to General Headquarters Rawalpindi and its regional games. All the same, the army will stay behind the scenes as far as politics is concerned, but it will be the only channel through which Washington will deal.

[snip]

Once a smooth transition of government is completed, the demands of the militants for a complete withdrawal of Pakistani forces from the tribal areas will be met and a ceasefire agreement between the security forces and the Taliban is likely by November.

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