Wednesday, September 26, 2007

How can you restore confidence when the dollar and house prices are tanking?

Bet you retail's counted-on-to-keep-in-the-black Christmas spending spree will be a dud, too:

The dollar has fallen to yet another all-time low against the euro, after further weak US economic data.

Figures showed that US consumer confidence has fallen to a near two-year low, while house prices have seen the sharpest drop in 16 years.

Analysts said the data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates still further.

In early trading on Wednesday, the euro hit a high of $1.4162, before pulling back to $1.4131 by 2230 GMT.

'Anti-dollar momentum'

The Fed cut US interest rates to 4.75% from 5.25% last week, in a move aimed at restoring confidence in both the housing and financial markets.

And then this by Max Fraad Wolff of The Asia Times:

New data for September are available now - after all, it is September now. These data suggest rising prices led by surging oil, wheat, gold and foreign-currency prices. Not to worry, the Fed will monitor that while pumping money into banks and slashing rates to prevent the economic downturn that has already arrived!

In early August it was clear that foreclosures were spiking, markets were boiling over and panic was rife. Bernanke decided that it was time to sound the all-clear with a cautionary note on inflation risks. After all, oil was a whopping and scary US$70 a barrel back then. Now it has settled down to $82, and so the worry has lifted?

Food costs - especially wheat - have surged in the month since the Fed worried about inflation. I guess that is why we are now worried about financial-market conditions. Across the one month and one week between the meetings, the broadest US stock-market index, S&P500, went from 1,476.71 to Monday's close of 1,476.65. This must have been the radical deterioration that caused the about-face!

Bernanke is ideally focused on inflation-fighting, price stability and economic growth. It would seem he is concerned about bank demands for liquidity and equity-market indices. I am not saying there is anything wrong with that. I am saying the talk, the action and the statements are not anywhere near to being on the same page.

[snip]

The truth is that Tuesday's reassurance and logic are as frightening as the logic and all-clear sounded on August 7. Buckling under Wall Street pressure and slashing rates help stock prices. The way and timing in which the discount rate was cut - twice now - attack market shorts and artificially push up stock prices.

Thus it will be seen as genius by those you hear on TV, radio, and many newspapers. I am concerned that the Fed acted late, is confused about where we are in the calendar year, pays no mind to its recent statements, and is acting to head off future economic trouble that everyone else knows is already here.

Now... just exactly how do I go about changing my dollars into Euros?

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