Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Holding Pakistan together with duct tape

The Bush administration supports Musharraf's deportation of Sharif:

The United States has termed the controversy over the deportation of former Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif to Jeddha an internal matter of the country as Washington appreciated Islamabad's role in counter-terrorism efforts during a crucial strategic dialogue in Islamabad.

"As far as the issue of Nawaz Sharif, we view it as an internal, Pakistani political and legal matter and it is for the government and people and authorities of Pakistan to decide," said US deputy secretary John Negroponte at the conclusion of a day-long strategic dialogue between the two allies.

"We are supportive of a political process that is peaceful. We look forward to democratic elections being held in Pakistan quite shortly and we think it is important that there will be a smooth and democratic political transition," the top diplomat said.

The BBC:

[Musharraf] has opted for a confrontation with the Supreme Court instead of allowing Mr Sharif, an unpredictable rival, to set Pakistan's political agenda ahead of elections due later this year.

But will this choice make life easier for Gen Pervez Musharraf, the embattled president of the country?

The Supreme Court ruled in July that Mr Sharif could return to the country, ending a seven-year-long exile.

His deportation to Saudi Arabia on Monday, say legal experts, breaches that verdict and constitutes contempt of court.

So what was the government thinking when it decided to exercise this option?

Perhaps the answer lies in the choices Gen Musharraf faces during the next couple of months

Eight years after he toppled Mr Sharif's government in a dramatic coup, Gen Musharraf has lost much of his earlier glow.

[snip]

When Mr Sharif decided to return to the country, one option was to arrest him in connection with some of the corruption cases still pending against him, and put him in jail.

But his continued presence in the country might well have caused the political temperature to rise, especially in the wake of a renewed campaign by the country's lawyers to stop Gen Musharraf from running for another term.

It might also have tempted the PPP to either toughen its demands in its negotiations with the government, or to pull out of the talks altogether, given that PPP leader Benazir Bhutto has been coming in for criticism for trying to reach a deal with the military-led government.

It was therefore imperative, from the point of view of the government, to prevent Mr Sharif from returning and staying on in the country.

And exile in Saudi Arabia was the best option.

[snip]

In December 2000, Mr Sharif was granted a presidential pardon in two criminal convictions and exiled to Saudi Arabia.

The Pakistani and Saudi governments say that as a quid pro quo, he promised not to return to Pakistan or interfere in its politics for 10 years.

His latest deportation to Saudi Arabia means that he could be out of the picture for another three years.

But observers believe the move itself is fraught with several risks.

For one, the government risks a backlash from the lawyers and the opposition groups who view Mr Sharif's deportation as an illegal move.

The Supreme Court, which owes its newfound freedom to the lawyers' movement for the restoration of the rule of law, will be under pressure to hold the government accountable.

A petition against Mr Sharif's deportation has already been filed by his PML-N party.

If the Supreme Court rules in favour of Mr Sharif it will be another blow to the government's credibility.

It would also make it harder for the PPP to continue to negotiate power sharing with a government that is seen to have openly violated the basic rights of a popular leader.



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