...the US economy really is bewildering. The government says gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of nearly 4 percent in the third quarter, the fastest pace in a year and a half. The stock market is still up by 4 percent for this year, despite a sharp 3 percent drop on Nov. 7. On the other hand, growth in consumer borrowing slowed unexpectedly in September. Some economists argue that the US is teetering on the brink of a recession, if it isn't in one already.Oil has exploded to nearly $100 a barrel, gold is near an all-time high, and the cost of food is soaring. It seems like high prices are breaking out all over, right? Yet the core rate of inflation is less than 2 percent a year, according to one widely followed measure. Confusion reigns right on up to the Federal Reserve, whose interest ratesetters are openly disagreeing about whether more cuts are needed.
Step back a little, though, and the situation becomes clearer. What we're observing, in all its bizarreness, is the ancient paradox of what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object. The irresistible force in this case is the US economy, which has managed to expand through all kinds of adversity for more than 15 years, aside from one brief recession in 2001. The immovable object is a wall of debt that accumulated during several years of profligate lending and now can't be paid back. The risk has increased for a generalized credit crunch that puts both borrowers and lenders in dire straits.
So, either the US economy will overcome the debt crisis and keep growing, or it won't. It's that simple -- and that important, with millions of indebted homeowners struggling to stay above water, the stock market seesawing uncertainly, and just a year to go before the next President is elected.
Dear god. We have one more year of George Bush. I think I'll go get my shovel....
No comments:
Post a Comment