Wednesday, October 07, 2020

"Steal what you can and burn the rest down on the way out."



I think there’s a decent chance Mitch McConnell suckered President Trump into canceling stimulus bill negotiations. The GOP looks to be shifting into bust out mode. McConnell and other party leaders likely see that Trump is finished and that the Senate majority probably is too. The cynical play is straightforward: pocket the Court seat and leave an incoming Biden administration in as deep a hole as possible. It even cues Republicans up to switch seamlessly back into austerity/fiscal scold mode in 2021, without their fingerprints on any more stimulus spending. Little discussed here is Trump’s assertion that leaving stimulus negotiations until after the election will clear the calendar to focus on confirming Amy Coney Barrett. Of course it will. That seems to be the point.

Normally it would be reasonable to ask whether anyone really thinks that cynically about governance. With Mitch McConnell not only do we know he thinks that cynically he actually acted this cynically under Barack Obama. We have a track record.

President Trump’s defeat already looks increasingly likely. Not only foreclosing the possibility of any additional relief but owning that decision publicly is the political equivalent of taking a hammer to your own head. Trump campaign advisors who spoke to reporters off the record last night were apoplectic. The stock market tanked. This is likely why by mid-evening Trump was back on Twitter demanding Nancy Pelosi agree to more deals and more spending.

It is no accident that we haven’t seen the President speak live on camera since his COVID diagnosis. It is hard to distinguish the President’s current state of mind from his baseline antic, mercurial nature. But much of what has happened over the last three days resembles a fairly typical manic episode and mania is a relatively common side effect of the steroid medication he was given as part of his COVID treatment. His Twitter feed is increasingly difficult to distinguish from Kanye West’s. Whatever the clinical effects of these medications, it is likely and would be unsurprising that the events of the last week – the failed debate, a life-threatening medical diagnosis and difficulty breathing – affected the President’s mental state. How could it not?

But don’t take your eyes off this broader calculus – one separate from Trump, his state of mind, one that is above all rational. Yes, everyone should give their 110%. Everybody get out to vote. The stakes for a second Trump term are too high to take anything for granted. But for those gaming out their own moves and post-January realities, Trump’s defeat is starting to look very likely. Under normal circumstances that would lead congressional Republicans to cut Trump loose and pitch their reelection as a check on the power of a Democratic President. That would be a great card to play for a number of endangered Republican Senators at the moment. But it’s all but impossible since loyalty to Trump is now the centerpiece of Republican identity. And any move away from him would trigger a fatal backlash.

So look for more signs of this bust out scenario. Steal what you can and burn the rest down on the way out.

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