If anyone is actually listening

Juan Cole cuts through the fog and tells us what Biden really said instead of imitating the pundits and blowing smoke:

The top myths in the press this weekend about Vice President Joe Biden are that he was rebuffed in Iraq when he offered his good offices with regard to effecting Arab-Kurdish reconciliation, and that he gave Israel a green light to attack Iran. Neither thing appears to be true.

[snip]

So what Biden was really saying is that the Obama administration intends to engage Iran diplomatically, and that if anyone wants Iran attacked they will have to do it themselves. This is not a green light to the Israelis, who hardly need one. It is a tough message to the right wing of the Israel lobbies that the Obama administration is not going to launch any hostilities with Iran, even after the hard line power grab of three weeks ago.

Oh, and the statement may serve as a reminder to a recalcitrant Iran of what might happen to Tehran if it refuses to negotiate in good faith over its nuclear enrichment program. (By the way, that there is no good evidence that Iran is working on a nuclear warhead, and that its current technological capacity is too limited for it to dream of such a thing any time soon, was again underlined by incoming International Atomic Energy Agency head Yukiya Amano.

Meanwhile, the real administration position on hostilities with Iran was clearly stated by Adm. Mike Mullen, which is that they would produce enormous instability (implied is that such instability would be bad for US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan).

In my view, Biden watchers still for the most part haven't gotten him right.

In an article for the San Francisco Chronicle, Cole is quoted:

Biden's comment "has a dual function of sending the message to Netanyahu that if he wants to cowboy it he is riding alone, and of warning the Iranians that Netanyahu might just be wild man enough to risk such a unilateral if Iran continues to be so intransigent with regard to seeking enrichment capabilities," Cole told me in an e-mail. "It is actually quite elegant."

Nice to see that Biden is adroit and clever rather than being what the medias' view of him is: an uncontrollable mouth. ... Which might just be intentional...

The Middle East is the worst shape ever

So says Nobel laureate Mohamed ElBaradei to Spiegel Online:

SPIEGEL ONLINE: The United States government is threatening to capture or kill Iranian agents in Iraq and Tehran has announced it will install thousands of centrifuges for the enrichment of uranium in Natanz. Are we witnessing a dramatic escalation of the conflict?

ElBaradei: If we continue on the same course, we could see a spiral of escalation. There is an urgent need for creative diplomacy and leadership. Diplomacy is pressure and engagement, and I very much hope that we can find the right balance. A durable, peaceful solution will not come through pressure only. It will ultimately come at the negotiating table.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: You don't sound very optimistic.

ElBaradei: The United Nations resolution itself recognizes the importance of finding a negotiated solution that will allow for the development of relations and cooperation with Iran. Clearly the sanctions were the expression of concern by the international community. I think the message was heard loud and clear in Iran.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: So why not simply wait until Iran gives in and stops its nuclear program?

ElBaradei: My concern is that if we only focus on sanctions, that might lead to confrontation on both sides, ending in an uncontrolled chain reaction. My worry right now is that each side is sticking to their guns: The international community is saying "sanctions or bust," and Iran is saying "nuclear enrichment capability or bust." Ultimately sanctions are useful to send a message, but they have to be followed by an effort to create conditions for negotiations.

Russia and Iran BFF?

What was that about staring into Putin's eyes and seeing his soul, Georgie?

By DEREK SANDS Despite mounting U.S. and international pressure on Tehran's nuclear program, the United States holds little chance of discouraging Russia from pursuing energy cooperation with the cash-strapped but oil- and gas-rich Iran.

Russia wants Iranian oil and natural gas, and while concerns over Tehran's nuclear program may affect relations in the future, for the time being Moscow is not hesitating to invest in energy exploration and production in Iran.

LUKoil, the largest Russian oil company, agreed in January to take over development of the 26 billion-barrel Azadegan oil field. Japanese oil company INPEX had contracted for a 75 percent stake in the field, but under pressure from the United States, dropped its share to 10 percent at the end of last year.

And in December Russian media reported that Tehran and Moscow would pursue a joint venture to develop natural gas deposits in the two countries.

[snip]

Moscow has been under pressure for years from the United States regarding all its dealings with Iran, ranging from arms to nuclear technology and now possibly energy. It has tried to deal with the conflicting pulls of the desire for improved relations with the United States and maintaining Iran as a 'stable partner for a long time' (Putin's words) by responding to U.S. demands during critical moments, while at the same time safeguarding its strategic and economic interests in Iran, a country that has been an important market for Russian goods, nuclear technology and conventional armament, and a supporter of Russian policies in Central Asia and Caucasus, Farhi said. But according to Kent Moors, director of the Energy Policy Research Group at Duquesne University and an expert on Russian and Caspian energy policy, this pressure is unlikely to affect Russia's energy business with Iran.

Moscow concluded some time ago that the U.S. has limited options in preventing Russian or other foreign dealings concerning Iranian oil and gas projects, Moors said. Direct pressure on Russia also seems unlikely to change its behavior.

The U.S. at this point cannot force Russia to do anything. However, if there are substantive indications that Iran has moved into a new phase of nuclear enrichment (having stockpiled enough enriched gas, for example), Moscow will pull back. Russia does not want a nuclear armed Iran any more than we do, Moors said. Discussions between Moscow and Tehran on oil and gas development are ongoing, but these talks will be unable to ignore Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's insistence the country develop a full nuclear cycle.