Turkey advances on the Kurds

But such an action could wildly backfire:

The government acted after 15 soldiers were killed within two days last week, bringing the year's total to 200 such casualties, and public clamor for a strong military response to separatist insurgents.

Turkish troops and military hardware are amassed now along the Iraq border to the southeast.

The United States, the European Union and Russia have advised Turkey against unilateral military action. The Iraqi government has said any Turkish incursion would infringe on its territorial integrity.

For the time being, Turks are not in listening mode. Back in April, Chief of Staff Gen Yasar Buyukanit said a military operation was feasible and advisable, but the government shied away from any move in view of parliamentary elections on July 22. But now, with casualties rising, government spokesman Cemil Cicek announced after an emergency meeting: "Time for words is over."

Funerals of fallen soldiers often turn into rallies for revenge, and calls for a strong military response.
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Professor Ilter Turan, a leading analyst of Turkish affairs and vice-president of the International Political Science Association, believes Turkey and the US can still work out differences in northern Iraq without a military move by Turkey. "With Turkey determined to crush the PKK, it is feasible that the United States will push Iraqi Kurds to capture and turn over to Turkey one or two top rebel leaders. It will placate Turkish public opinion and avoid a military move by Turkey."

In its approach to northern Iraq, the Turkish fear is that if an oil-rich independent Kurdistan emerges from an Iraqi meltdown, its own Kurds (up to 20% of the population of 72 million) may also make similar demands or at least press for more autonomy, or even a separate homeland entity within Turkey.

Sedat Laciner, head of the independent Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization, says that a Turkish move into northern Iraq would be seen outside of Turkey as "invasion" and "occupation" and could lead to increased trans-boundary Kurdish nationalism affecting also Iran and Syria, both with sizeable Kurdish minorities (four million in Iran, two million in Syria). Iraq counts five million Kurds in its north.

Laciner told IPS that the financial cost to Turkey of an attack into northern Iraq could be US$10 billion in flight of foreign capital, quite apart from the cost of the military operation. The move could also doom Turkey's controversial bid for full EU membership.

Update from the AP:

SIRNAK, Turkey (AP) -- Dozens of Turkish military vehicles loaded with soldiers and heavy weapons rumbled toward the Iraq border on Monday after an ambush by guerrilla Kurds that left eight soldiers missing and killed 12. Iraq's president said the rebels would announce a cease-fire later in the day.

Turkey's military said it had had no contact with the eight soldiers after Sunday's clash and said 34 guerrillas had been killed so far in a counteroffensive. A pro-Kurdish news agency said the eight were captured - a claim that would make it the largest seizure since 1995, when guerrillas grabbed eight soldiers and took them to northern Iraq.

The ambush on Sunday outraged an already frustrated public. Demonstrations erupted across the country and opposition leaders called for an immediate strike against rebel bases in Iraq, despite appeals for restraint from Iraq, the U.S. and European leaders.