What do friends matter when oil is involved?

What is a little backstabbing anyway? Why should we worry about breaking our word to the Kurds? Because we want an oil pipeline? Because we want Turkey to owe us when we attack Iran? Because we are holding off China and Russia in a land grab of rich oil deposits? Because Israel wants the Kurds to attack Iran?



The Asia Times:

Again, it is the oil and gas supplies from Iraq that will help realize the viability of the 3,300-kilometer Nabucco pipeline (running from the Caspian Sea via Turkey and the Balkan states to Austria), without which Russia's tightening grip over the European energy market cannot be loosened, which, in turn, holds profound implications for Russia's relations with Europe and for the US's trans-Atlantic leadership.

US policy review on Turkey
Thus, all in all, Washington has estimated the urgent need to accommodate Turkey's aspirations as a regional power. The Bush administration seems to have undertaken a major policy review toward Turkey in the October-November period last year around the same time it considered the follow-up on the troop "surge" in Iraq. It concluded that for a variety of reasons, abandoning Iraqi Kurds to their fate is a small price to pay for reviving Turkey's friendship.

The turning point came during the visit of Erdogan to the US in November. Almost overnight, the body language of US-Turkey relations began to change. The chilly rhetoric abruptly changed to warm backslapping. The emphasis was on the commonality of interests in the struggle against terrorism. There was an unmistakable impatience in the US calls on the Iraqi Kurdish leadership to restrain the PKK through concrete steps.

Immediately after Erdogan's visit, deputy chief of the Turkish General Staff, General Ergin Saygun, received his American counterpart, General James Cartwright, and the US's top commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, in Ankara for follow-up discussions. They established a mechanism for intelligence-sharing. And the US began supplying Turkey with real-time intelligence regarding PKK activities in northern Iraq.

By the time US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Ankara a week later in early December, she could already acknowledge that Turkey had a "comprehensive plan" to fight the PKK. The tacit understanding with the US enabled Turkey to launch the air strikes inside northern Iraq from December 16 onward. Washington - and European countries - openly accepted the legitimacy of Turkey's attacks on the PKK bases. It was a major diplomatic and military victory for Ankara.

[snip] (my bold)

Even the left-wing Kemalist Cumhuriyet newspaper acknowledged, "A new era is upon us [in US-Turkey relations]." With a sense of deja vu, Iraqi Kurd leaders began realizing that Bush has done a Kissingerian trick on them and the ground has shifted beneath their feet. Since November, they have been resigned to the inevitability of Turkish military operations inside northern Iraq. More important, they have assessed that with the u-turn in US policy, the odds are heavily stacked against them. The Kurds know from long experience it is futile to be defiant of a superpower, especially when it bonds with a strong regional power - at least for the time being.

Both Barzani and Kurdish leader and President Jalal Talabani have accepted that as long as the Turkish operations are in the nature of "limited military incursions to remote, isolated, uninhabited regions" of northern Iraq - to quote Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebary, who is also Barzani's nephew - they won't make a fuss about the Turkish violation of Iraqi sovereignty. When the Turkish jets and helicopter gunships first appeared over the northern Iraqi skies in mid-December, it was apparent that Barzani had abandoned the PKK and henceforth the latter would be on its own. Barzani expects Ankara to appreciate his attitude as a serious concession and an act of goodwill.

[snip]

Certainly, when someone takes its help, Washington usually expects the friend to return the favor. Ankara can't be an exception. But, will the AKP reciprocate? It will be a tough call. The Islamist AKP government will seriously ponder over the irony of ordering troops to get cracking on militant Islamists as part of a NATO force, which a growing number of alienated Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan view as an occupation army. Turkey would consult its close friend, Pakistan.

But Bush is running out of time. He will expect Erdogan and Gul to stand up and be counted as true friends by the time NATO gathers for its summit in Romania in early April. Hyland sums up, "Given the stakes for the United States, the tough negotiations over the NATO/ISAF mission in Afghanistan have just begun with other NATO allies as well as with Turkey. After making a general appeal for additional troops across the entire NATO community, the United States appears to have chosen Turkey as the 'best-chance' ally to focus on for immediate results.
"Turkey's success against the PKK since real-time intelligence made it possible to hit targets in Iraq with pinpoint precision, is a considerable inducement in the ongoing discussions, especially as spring approaches - the traditional season for the commencement of another PKK campaign."

Here is the International Herald Tribune:

Turkey has assured Iraq and the U.S. military that the operation will be limited to attacks on rebels. Both the United States and the European Union consider the PKK a terrorist group.

The Iraqi government has criticized the offensive.

"We know the threats that Turkey is facing, but military operations will not solve the PKK problem," Ali al-Dabbagh, an Iraqi government spokesman, said Saturday.

The rebels, meanwhile, warn that they have the advantage of fighting on their home terrain.

"We are using guerrilla fighting techniques and not fighting as one fixed front," said Havaw Ruaj, a PKK spokesman. The rebels are skilled at fighting in the rocky mountainous area and changing their positions, he added.

Massoud Barzani, head of the regional administration in the semiautonomous Kurdish area, warned that Turkey would face large-scale resistance if it targeted civilians in its incursion.

Kurdish demands have run the spectrum from self-rule to more-limited rights, like increased freedom to educate and broadcast in their language.

The Turkish government granted some cultural rights to Kurds as part of its bid to join the European Union. But many Kurds, who make up 20 percent of Turkey's population of 75 million, chafe under state controls on freedom of expression.

And from another article in The Hindu:

No wonder, Mr. Erdogan hit out at Washington’s sophistry in his recent interview with Sunday Times: “We have told President Bush numerous times how sensitive we are about this issue [PKK] but up till now we have not had a single positive result. America is our strategic partner. But in northern Iraq, we feel that both the terrorist organisation and the administration there are sheltering behind America… It makes us sad to see American weapons being found in the possession of the terrorist organisation acting against Turkey.”

In principle, Washington counsels a “political solution” to Turkey’s Kurdish problem. In essence, it is nudging Turkey to negotiate directly with the KRG. Meanwhile, Turkey feels the pain of PKK terrorism. As Opposition leader Deniz Baykal put it, “The knife has reached the bone.”

Ankara is on a painful learning curve. It has no choice but to knock on Washington’s door. The alternative is to invade Iraq, which could get it into a quagmire with frightful consequences. Yet, Turkey is one of America’s oldest transatlantic partners — a founder of the NATO, in fact. It remains crucial for the U.S. strategic interests in the Middle East and the Black Sea regions.

Washington is bargaining with Turkey. Why so? The fact remains that Turkey’s regional policies have changed course under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. Ankara has become noticeably circumspect in the recent years toward the U.S. regional policies. Apart from the Islamist roots of the AKP government, other factors have come into play. Turkey’s refusal to join the invasion of Iraq in 2003; the AKP government’s dealings with the Hamas leadership in Palestine; independent stance on Lebanon; warming of ties between Turkey and Iran and Syria; Ankara’s calibrated distancing from the U.S. strategy in Iraq; strengthening of Russia-Iran cooperation; growing flexibility in Turkey’s relations with the West; and a newfound proximity between Turkey and the East — all these have added up as complicating factors in the U.S-Turkey relations in the past four years.

In sum, Ankara is being made to realise that it simply cannot afford to have an independent foreign policy in its surrounding regions. The bottom line, as far as Washington is concerned, is Turkey forms part of the Western security system and the bondage is like a Catholic marriage — in perpetuity. As the new cold war gathers momentum, there is added urgency for Washington that Turkey should not remain a bystander, as in the Iraq invasion of 2003, if a U.S. military strike against Iran ensues.

The standoff in the inhospitable mountains of the Turkish-Iraqi border region becomes a morality play, a spectacle of the quintessence of “strategic partnerships” in contemporary world. Not too long ago, strategic thinkers in their ivory towers would have thought that the U.S. regional policy provided for Turkey a special status as a “balancer” in the Middle East.

Lars Akerhaug of The Monthly Review Magazine suggests this ploy:

And it looks as if the PKK is consciously trying to get Turkey involved in Iraq. Maybe they want to weaken the relations between Turkey and the US (they're bad enough already) and thus indirectly strengthen their own relations to Washington. Maybe the guerrillas are betting that the neocons once again will attempt to exploit the Kurds, this time in a crusade against Iran?

The situation in Turkey, Iraq, and Kurdistan is a bright example of how geopolitics is centered around the United States. Since the Iraq war, Turks and Kurds have fought over support from the White House. Anyone could have predicted the current conflict. At the same time the US never had many options. They don't exactly have plenty of friends in this part of the world. This war could easily become the last step towards the collapse of the US occupation of Iraq.

So... we need Turkey to be our friend again and definitely not Russia's and we will ignore their troubles with Kurdistan and Armenia so we can run a pipeline to India while preventing China and Russia from taking over areas of Kazakhstan and other oil rich countries surrounding the Caspian Sea while we plan to attack Iran where we will need the Kurds to help because Israel wants Iran's nuclear program to be stopped while we fight an unending civil war in Iraq while paying Sunnis to stop fighting Shiites and take time to fight al-Qaeda who are rebuilding in Afghanistan and we are now sending military advisors to help fight the insurgents in Pakistan and keep Musharraf from falling off his throne.

Did I miss anybody?

crossposted at SteveAudio

Doing just what the White House has done

Go after terrorists with no thought as to consequences:

Turkish warplanes have bombed suspected Kurdish rebel bases deep inside northern Iraq - in what appears the first time fighter jets have been used.

They targeted the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in areas near the border, officials said. The Turkish media said up to 50 planes were used.

Iraqi officials say bombs hit 10 villages, killing one woman, while the PKK reported seven deaths.

There is nothing we can complain about, is there?

Preparing for a double double-cross and a bombing of Iran

Pepe Escobar of the Asia Times shows the complex tangle of Iraq's neighboring countries jockeying for position and power that Bush's invasion has activated and possibly losing Turkey to Iran and joining Russia and China: (my bold)

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a fine politician, knew even before he set foot in Washington on Monday that President George W Bush could not possibly have anything tangible to offer him on the explosive Turkey vs Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) dossier, apart from Pentagon aerial intelligence passed on to Turkish generals.

Erdogan, although describing himself as "happy" with his talks with Bush, may have left with nothing substantial. But at least he got a sound bite from Bush, who upgraded the PKK to the status of an enemy of America. Bush told Erdogan, "The PKK is a terrorist organization. They're an enemy of Turkey, they're an enemy of Iraq and they're an enemy of the United States."

Pity the US president could not possibly follow his own logic and add that the Party for Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK - the PKK's Iran arm - is an enemy of Iran, an enemy of Iraq but a friend of the United States - which is arming and financing its fighters.

[snip]

Way beyond Turkey's troubles with the PKK, it all comes back to the stark fact that Turkey simply cannot accept a virtually independent Iraqi Kurdistan in its southeast border - exactly the outcome sought by the US-Israeli axis.

Bush and his inner circle have bought time to calculate the odds on whom to double-cross. Will it be North Atlantic Treaty Orgaization ally Turkey, with its handy Incirlik base, anti-US public opinion and no oil; or pro-US Iraqi Kurds, with lots of oil and their Israeli-trained peshmerga (armed forces)? Tough call. A poker player familiar with Bush administration methods would bet on a double double-cross, complete with a "blame it on Iran" sequel and a "bomb Iran" grand finale.

Ankara's logic remain flawless, at least from a "war on terror" angle. If Washington invaded both Afghanistan and Iraq to fight "terrorists", Ankara has the same rights to invade its terrorist-harboring neighbor, which just happens to be an American neo-colony. The irony is obviously lost on the Bush administration.

[snip]

Washington is more the loser because virtually no one in Turkey is shedding tears for what happens to their 57-year-old alliance. According to the June 2007 Pew Global Attitudes Project, no less than 83% of Turkey's public opinion had an "unfavorable view" of the US, ahead of Egypt and Jordan (both at 78%) and Pakistan (68%). All of these governments - but not their populations - are US allies. It's fair to assume these numbers are rising.

Russia for its part cannot but applaud the newfound Turkish-Persian entente. Non-stop Bush administration heavy handedness is actually fast erasing historical grievances and paving the way towards a new Eurasian configuration, with Turkey-Iran getting closer to Russia-China.

[snip]

Bush's invasion and occupation of Iraq opened a Pandora's box that only now starts to be seen for its true incendiary potential. Turkey threatening to strike Iraq to protect its national security is a carbon copy of Bush invading Iraq in 2003. Moreover, "Iraq" is actually no more; it's been smashed into three virtually independent statelets - exactly what Israel wanted in the first place.

Israel is so keen on an independent Iraqi Kurdistan because this is the way towards a new Kirkuk-Haifa oil pipeline (the old one was shut down in 1948) - which will pass though three American bases and cross US-friendly Jordan. A complicating factor is that at the same time Tel Aviv avidly coddles racist, Kurd-hating Turkish generals.

And with this double-crossing back-stabbing power-grabbing going on, we have an administration that ignores its diplomats.

It's always about the oil, isn't it?

Another front opens up

Turkish warplanes have bombed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) targets along the Iraqi border in southeast Turkey, the country's semi-official Anatolia news agency has said.

The agency said fighter jets from an air force base at Diyarbakir, the main city in the mainly Kurdish southeast, bombed and destroyed several PKK positions on Wednesday.

It said the bombings particularly targeted PKK routes in high mountainous areas.

The raids were said to have been conducted in four provinces, Sirnak and Hakkari, which border Iraq and neighbouring Siirt and Van, which abut the Iranian border.

Update: And Iraq acknowledges that al-Maliki is weak and cannot control the Kurds:

In Baghdad, politicians acknowledged that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki lacked the political and military muscle needed to fulfill his pledge to crack down on rebels from the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, who last week killed 12 Turkish soldiers and captured eight in an ambush in Turkey.

Iraqi Kurdish officials indicated that they were unlikely to help in any crackdown, with the regional government's spokesman denying that there are PKK bases in northern Iraq.

"We believe that the statements of Mr. Maliki about closing the centers of the PKK don't apply to us because we do not have any centers," the spokesman, Jamal Abdullah, said.

Turkey advances on the Kurds

But such an action could wildly backfire:

The government acted after 15 soldiers were killed within two days last week, bringing the year's total to 200 such casualties, and public clamor for a strong military response to separatist insurgents.

Turkish troops and military hardware are amassed now along the Iraq border to the southeast.

The United States, the European Union and Russia have advised Turkey against unilateral military action. The Iraqi government has said any Turkish incursion would infringe on its territorial integrity.

For the time being, Turks are not in listening mode. Back in April, Chief of Staff Gen Yasar Buyukanit said a military operation was feasible and advisable, but the government shied away from any move in view of parliamentary elections on July 22. But now, with casualties rising, government spokesman Cemil Cicek announced after an emergency meeting: "Time for words is over."

Funerals of fallen soldiers often turn into rallies for revenge, and calls for a strong military response.
[snip]
Professor Ilter Turan, a leading analyst of Turkish affairs and vice-president of the International Political Science Association, believes Turkey and the US can still work out differences in northern Iraq without a military move by Turkey. "With Turkey determined to crush the PKK, it is feasible that the United States will push Iraqi Kurds to capture and turn over to Turkey one or two top rebel leaders. It will placate Turkish public opinion and avoid a military move by Turkey."

In its approach to northern Iraq, the Turkish fear is that if an oil-rich independent Kurdistan emerges from an Iraqi meltdown, its own Kurds (up to 20% of the population of 72 million) may also make similar demands or at least press for more autonomy, or even a separate homeland entity within Turkey.

Sedat Laciner, head of the independent Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization, says that a Turkish move into northern Iraq would be seen outside of Turkey as "invasion" and "occupation" and could lead to increased trans-boundary Kurdish nationalism affecting also Iran and Syria, both with sizeable Kurdish minorities (four million in Iran, two million in Syria). Iraq counts five million Kurds in its north.

Laciner told IPS that the financial cost to Turkey of an attack into northern Iraq could be US$10 billion in flight of foreign capital, quite apart from the cost of the military operation. The move could also doom Turkey's controversial bid for full EU membership.

Update from the AP:

SIRNAK, Turkey (AP) -- Dozens of Turkish military vehicles loaded with soldiers and heavy weapons rumbled toward the Iraq border on Monday after an ambush by guerrilla Kurds that left eight soldiers missing and killed 12. Iraq's president said the rebels would announce a cease-fire later in the day.

Turkey's military said it had had no contact with the eight soldiers after Sunday's clash and said 34 guerrillas had been killed so far in a counteroffensive. A pro-Kurdish news agency said the eight were captured - a claim that would make it the largest seizure since 1995, when guerrillas grabbed eight soldiers and took them to northern Iraq.

The ambush on Sunday outraged an already frustrated public. Demonstrations erupted across the country and opposition leaders called for an immediate strike against rebel bases in Iraq, despite appeals for restraint from Iraq, the U.S. and European leaders.

Oh, look, a new front opens up in the glorious Iraqi Freedom War

Just what we need:

Ankara, Turkey (AHN) - Turkey's parliament overwhelmingly approved cross-border military operations against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq Wednesday, with a 507-19 vote. The authorization is good for a year, however, and so far, Turkish leaders seem poised to allow more time for a diplomatic resolution before sending more troops across the Iraqi border.

Turkey holds the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) responsible for the deaths of 15 soldiers and 12 civilians earlier this month, which was apparently part of an ongoing campaign for self-rule. The PKK considers parts of southeastern Turkey, northeastern Iraq, northeastern Syria and northwestern Iran to be Kurdistan, and since 1984, they have launched an ongoing campaign to establish a Kurdish state. The militant struggle has met with over two dozen attacks by the Turkish military in the past twenty years and has claimed over 30,000 lives.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan claims the recent attack was launched from PKK training camps in northern Iraq.

Iraqi leaders are working hard to convince Turkey to exercise restraint while they attempt to quell tensions and persuade the PKK to break up the camps and lay down its arms. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki telephoned his Turkish counterpart early Wednesday, hours prior to the vote, to reiterate his intention to put a halt to the PKK's "terrorist activities," appealing for continued dialogue between the two countries. Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, meanwhile, has traveled to Ankara to issue the same appeal for diplomacy.

Nothing like pissing off the last friend in the region

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- With Turkish-U.S. relations strained, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that Turkey would not be deterred by the diplomatic consequences if it decides to stage a cross-border offensive into Iraq against Kurdish rebels.

"If such an option is chosen, whatever its price, it will be paid," Erdogan told reporters in response to a question about the international repercussions of such a decision, which would strain ties with the United States and Iraq. "There could be pros and cons of such a decision, but what is important is our country's interests."

Erdogan also had harsh words for the United States, which opposes a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq -- one of the country's few relatively stable areas.

"Did they seek permission from anyone when they came from a distance of 10,000 kilometers and hit Iraq?" he said. "We do not need anyone else's advice."

Analysts say Turkey could be less restrained about defying the United States because of a congressional committee's approval of a resolution labeling the mass killings of Armenians around the time of World War I as genocide.

"Democrats are harming the future of the United States and are encouraging anti-American sentiments," Erdogan said. Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives support the resolution.

Erdogan said Turkey was ready to sacrifice good ties with Washington if necessary.

The Asian Times:

In the face of ambushes on Sunday linked to the PKK, in which more than 10 Turkish soldiers were killed, and the subsequent escalation of tension with Turkey, the Iraqi Kurdish leadership appears to be facing the situation with a certain aplomb - at least in its rhetoric. In a telephone interview, the foreign minister for the Kurdish area of Iraq, Falah M Bakir, said, "Of course we understand Turkey’s concerns, but we don’t believe that crossing the border will effectively address them."
Bakir, who is in New York for a meeting of the UN General Assembly, said that his regional government and Turkish officials are currently reduced to communicating with each other through the media. In the wake of the recent elections in Turkey, Bakir said he and his colleagues had held out the hope that a constructive dialogue with Turkey would begin. "Unfortunately there is no dialogue right now. But we are ready for talks."

When asked about Turkey’s concerns that Iraqi-Kurdish officials are not doing enough to counter the PKK, Bakir said that the group is trying to further its goals through peaceful, political aims. But when asked, he did not deny that the group could be responsible for the recent attacks in Turkey. He added that the PKK is spread out in a mountainous terrain on the border, does not have formal bases that can be attacked, and is not part of the official political structure of his regional government.

[snip]

Still, an escalation of Turkish military activity within the Kurdish region of Iraq could be risky. If the Turkish military hits civilians, Iraq would respond to Turkey, potentially causing far-reaching problems in bilateral relations. And then there is the question of civil-military relations in Turkey. The current government, with its ostensible Islamic leanings, already has strained relations with the military, which is seen by some as the caretaker of secularism in Turkey.

[snip]

For the United States, balancing the interests of the generally pro-American Iraqi Kurds, whose region is the only showcase of stability in Iraq, and NATO ally Turkey, will continue to demand diplomatic dexterity, noted Barkey. Such dexterity is something which is in short supply in the lower levels of the US State Department, at the assistant-secretary level, he added.

And there is another fresh wrinkle. Turkey warned on Thursday that relations with the US would be harmed by a US House committee’s approval on Wednesday of a non-binding resolution calling the 1915 massacres of Armenians by Ottoman Turks "genocide". The 27-21 decision by the House of Representatives foreign affairs committee comes before a vote in the full House in coming weeks, and occurred in spite of a warning from President George W Bush that cooperation with Turkey and the fate of US troops in Iraq could be at stake.

Update: Bryan at Why Now? offers an excellent synopsis on Turkey's history and the recall of the Turkish ambassador from the United States.

Turkey is getting impatient

And is beginning to amass troops along the border of Iraq:

Baghdad, Iraq (AHN)-Officials in Iraq are accusing neighboring Turkey of massing some 140,000 soldiers on its northern Iraq border, bringing the number of Turkish troops close to the 155,000 U.S. soldiers that are stationed throughout the country.

Turkey, which has accused the U.S. of inaction against Kurdish separatist rebels in the north, has been battling insurgent PKK Kurdish guerrillas since 1984, in a war which has taken an estimated 30,000 lives.

Oh good, just what we need. Another swimmer into the bloodbath that is Iraq. C'mon in, the water's fine.

What Bush and Cheney have been waiting for

Is about to come to fruition:

A draft oil law has been submitted to Iraq's parliament after the government and the Iraqi Kurdistan regional authority resolved differences on the sharing of the country's oil reserves, officials have said.

A spokesman for Iraq's oil minister said he expected politicians to begin debating the draft law in the next few days.

"A deal has been reached and the draft has been delivered to parliament to be discussed... in the coming days. An agreement has been reached covering all disputes," Asim Jihad said.

An official in the Kurdish regional government said an agreement had been made, but did not give further details.

[snip]

The draft oil law is crucial in regulating how wealth from Iraq's huge oil reserves will be distributed between sectarian and ethnic groups.

Dividing up the loot....

It was just a freeway kinda hot pursuit, not an invasion

Turkey invades Iraq... or not:

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- Several thousand Turkish troops crossed into northern Iraq early Wednesday to chase Kurdish guerrillas who attack Turkey from bases there, two Turkish security officials said. Turkey's foreign minister denied its troops had entered Iraq.

Two senior security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media, characterized the action as a limited "hot pursuit" raid. They told The Associated Press it did not constitute the kind of large incursion that Turkish leaders have been discussing in recent weeks as Turkish troops built up their force along the border.

One official said the troops went less than two miles inside Iraq and were still there in late afternoon. "It is a hot pursuit, not an incursion," one official said.

Another official said by telephone it was "not a major offensive and the number of troops is not in the tens of thousands." He also said the Turkish troops went into a remote, mountainous area.

The officials are based in southeast Turkey, where the military has been battling separatist Kurdish rebels since they took up arms in 1984.

The officials stood by their statement despite denials from Turkish and Iraqi officials.

And here we go....

Into the wild blue quagmire of all quagmires:
Via Attaturk of Rising Hegemon, the Kurds have fired on Turkey:

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) - Kurdish rebels fired rockets and grenades at a Turkish military outpost Monday, killing seven soldiers in an attack that heightened tension at a time when Ankara has threatened military action against the rebels in northern Iraq.

The army sent helicopter gunships and reinforcements to Tunceli province in southeastern Turkey after guerrillas rammed a vehicle into the military post and opened fire with automatic weapons and rockets, local media reported.

Soldiers returned fire, killing the driver, the military said.

The attack came as Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul told European Union officials visiting Ankara that ``we have every right to take measures against terrorist activities directed at us from northern Iraq.''

Turkey's political and military leaders have been debating whether to stage an incursion into northern Iraq to try to root out Kurdish rebel bases there.

I told you and I told you....

Forget about our successful democratizing efforts in Iraq for a moment

How are our friends in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkey doing?

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - The government yesterday banned demonstrations in Pakistan's capital, the latest effort to quell mounting political turmoil over President Pervez Musharraf's decision to suspend the chief justice.

Thousands of Pakistanis have joined protests since the March 9 ouster of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, accusing Musharraf of trying to sideline the independent-minded judge before elections this year. Riots erupted last month when authorities stopped Chaudhry from leading a demonstration in the city of Karachi, leaving more than 40 people dead.

Musharraf, facing his deepest political crisis since taking power in a 1999 coup, emerged from a meeting with top military officers yesterday with a strong affirmation of their support.

The military denounced a "malicious campaign" against the government "by vested interests and opportunists who were acting as obstructionist forces to serve their personal interests and agenda even at the cost of flouting the rule of law." It said Musharraf assured the military that no one would be able to destabilize Pakistan.

Hmm. Thousands in the streets protesting? The army will take care of them. Next? How are our friends in Afghanistan?

The warriors of northern Afghanistan, whom former US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad thought he had astutely mothballed and consigned to the dustbin of history, are reappearing in the Amu Darya region that borders Uzbekistan.

[snip]

A Pandora's box of northern Afghanistan's ancient ethnic and tribal rivalries may have opened.

[snip]

The Taliban are evidently adopting a new strategy. After registering their presence in a vast swath of land in the south almost up to the approaches to Kabul city, they are beginning to commit attacks in the north. From all accounts, the suicide bomber who attacked the German troops was a Taliban activist. The attack took place in the busy market center of Kunduz. Three German troops were killed; five were wounded seriously and were airlifted to Cologne for medical treatment, apart from seven Afghan civilians who were killed and 13 wounded.

[snip]

Der Spiegel assessed that Berlin is mulling its role, and might well decide to withdraw from Operation Enduring Freedom. The point is, there is no possibility in sight for increasing Germany's troop levels if the situation were to deteriorate on the ground in northern Afghanistan.

[snip] Meanwhile Russia stirs.

Beyond this factor lies the geopolitics of the "new cold war". Certainly, Russian policies in the Central Asian region have shifted gear in recent months in response to the US decision regarding missile-defense deployments in Russia's neighboring regions. (Chinese criticism of the US missile-defense deployments has also become frequent and focused.)

[snip]

NATO activities in Afghanistan are under close Russian scrutiny. Moscow has openly begun voicing criticism of the US-led NATO policies toward Central Asia. CSTO secretary general Nikolai Bordyuzha said while on a visit to Bishkek last week that NATO has been pursuing a "policy of projecting and consolidating its military-political presence in the Caucasus and in Central Asia". He spoke of "external challenges and risks that undermine stability in the post-Soviet space", which are emanating out of the "growing activities of extra-regional structures, primarily NATO, the European Union and third countries".

Bordyuzha singled out Washington's "Greater Central Asia" policy, which envisages Afghanistan as the hub of the US strategy toward Central Asia. He criticized this as an attempt to drive a geopolitical wedge between regional states on the one hand and Russia and the CSTO on the other. Bordyuzha said, "This is an attempt to reorient the Central Asian states towards cooperation with the United States in a new format, encompassing, besides the Central Asian states, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and in the future, India."

Ok. Afghanistan has incoming tribal wars and Russia is licking its chops. Let's go visit Turkey!

DAMASCUS - Beleaguered Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who could be days away from losing US support and with it his job, is seeking renewed Kurdish support, even expressing his full backing for the Kurds in a potentially disastrous confrontation with Turkey.

This move could strengthen his position in internal Iraqi politics, but it looks like political suicide on the regional level, as in addition to Turkey, Iran and Syria, key players in resolving Iraq's problems, have Kurdish concerns.

The situation on the border has become so tense that US Defense Secretary Robert Gates this weekend cautioned Turkey against a military operation inside northern Iraq to attack outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) bases there.

Turkey is concerned at the emergence of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq and the presence there of the PKK, from where it launches attacks on Turkey.

Well, at least we're friends with China. Right? Right?

COLUMBUS, Ohio - Early this year, when China blasted one of its satellites into thousands of little pieces, it was condemned by Washington as a provocative act. But some arms-control experts believe Beijing was baring its teeth to send the White House a different message. They say that China, which has consistently opposed the weaponization of space, is hoping to negotiate an arms treaty that would rein in both nations' growing arsenal of so-called "space weapons".

Just days after the anti-satellite (ASAT) test, on January 27, Beijing seemingly had its answer. On the west shore of the Hawaiian island of Kauai, the United States' ground-based Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) shot down a dummy ballistic missile over the South Pacific as it skirted the edge of space roughly 110 kilometers high.

Hmm. Just keep Bush and Cheney at home and don't let them do any more of this shock and awe diplomacy.

Oh No!

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sharp differences between the United States and Russia over President Bush's plan to build a missile defense system on Moscow's doorstep are likely to dominate talk during Bush's European tour.

Bush, who left Monday at the start of an eight-day trip to the G-8 summit of industrialized nations and visits to half a dozen countries, will see President Vladimir Putin at the summit in Germany later this week. It likely will be a difficult talk; relations between Washington and Moscow are strained almost to the breaking point, and Putin has been harshly critical of U.S. foreign policy.

Bush's message in advance of the trip has been to calm down, reminding Russia that "the Cold War is over." As if to drive home that point, Bush was bookending his summit stay with calls on the Czech Republic and Poland, former Soviet satellites where he wants to base major parts of the new defense shield.

Talking to reporters aboard Air Force One Monday en route to Prague, national security adviser Stephen Hadley acknowledged that "there has been some escalation in the rhetoric."

Oh dear God. We've seen what Bush does when he's with other world leaders....

Talking with his mouth full...


Waving stuff in front of Putin with his soulful eyes....


Unrequested shoulder massages....


Intelligent conversation at the last G8 summit exposing his awareness of geography and diplomatic finesse...

Mr Bush displays his trademark informality joking with leaders about their journey home. "Yo Blair, how you doin'?" he says at one point. "You leaving?"

"You get home in eight hours?" he says to another leader. "Me too! Russia's a big country and you're a big country. Gotta go home. Got something to do tonight."

"Thanks for the sweater," he says of his 60th birthday present from the prime minister. "Awfully thoughtful of you. I know you picked it out yourself."

The tone of America's public debate is far more rarefied than Britain's, and Mr Bush has over the years been careful to avoid being overheard swearing. The last time he was caught out in such a way was six years ago, before he was in the White House when he was overheard describing a New York Times correspondent as a "major-league asshole".

He may not be too concerned at this latest slip, given that the target of his abuse was Hizbollah, one of Middle America's oldest villains. When Vice President Dick Cheney used far stronger language in 2004 telling a Democratic congressman to leave him alone, opinion polls suggested many on the Christian Right approved.

The recording also picks up Mr Bush speaking to other leaders, bantering about his preference for Diet Coke, and making clear his irritation at the formalities of summitry.

The thought of making an after-lunch farewell toast clearly does not appeal - nor does the prospect of listening to fellow leaders some of whom he clearly thinks are far too in love with the sound of their own voices. "I'm just going to make it up. I'm not going to talk too damn long like the rest of them. Some of these guys talk too long."

We are so fucked.