A surprising discovery in the Antarctic has scientists alarmed. According to an analysis of core samples, the southern ice shelf reacts far more sensitively to warming temperatures than scientists had previously believed. The message: sea levels may rise even further than feared.[snip]
Until now climate researchers' biggest fear was that the small west Antarctic ice sheet could shrink as a result of the global warming predicted to set in by the end of the 21st century. In its recent report on global warming, the United Nations predicted a temperature increase of two to five degrees Celsius (3.6 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100. But the possibility that global warming could also affect the significantly larger east Antarctic ice sheet has not been incorporated into the climate simulation models -- not until now, at least.
During the Miocene-Pliocene warming period, the average temperature of the oceans increased by two to three degrees Celsius (3.6 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit). But even relatively minor warming can bring about greater consequences than previously believed. "What we have learned is that the shelf ice is a highly dynamic system. It isn't something we would have expected," says Niessen, who argues that this new information must be incorporated into future climate models. "This is the message of the drill core," he says. It appears that man has also underestimated the effects of even minor warming.
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