Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Saudi Arabian--Iran conflict in the future?

So Saudi Arabia might start protecting the Sunni groups in Iraq which will be fighting the Shia groups protected by Iran. This is what they are talking about when they say countries around the region being sucked into the black hole that was Iraq?

Via Crooks and Liars:
"So let me see if I have this straight: We invaded a country for whatever reason du jour (WMDs, Saddam an evil dictator, 9/11, terrorists, etc.), without the people at the top having the foreknowledge of the history of the area or the difference between various Muslim sects, took out the relatively secular (although admittedly dictator-based) government in favor of a far more Islamic (but democratically elected) government and continued to occupy said country, fighting in some cases FOR the Shia (being assisted by our sworn enemies, Iran) and against the insurgent Sunnis (that our allies, the Saudis, support)."

Which leads to a link at Mother Jones:
"The U.S. is not the only country crafting the fate of Iraq (The Baker Commission's report is set to be released a week from today). Today Reuters reports that Nawaf Obaid, a security adviser to the Saudi government, writing in the Washington Post said that the Saudi government has plans of their own. Obaid writes that if the U.S. begins to withdraw from Iraq, Saudi Arabia plans to protect the Sunni minority from "Iranian-baked shiite militias.""

Which is verified by The Asia Times:
"
It would be hard to find a stranger couple than President George W Bush and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. Their meeting comes as Washington seems poised to end its efforts to appease Sunnis and throw in its lot with Iraqi Shi'ites, of whom Hakim is the paramount leader. But that may mean dealing with Hakim's backer, Iran."

And also at The Asia Times:
"Tehran's politicians and military leaders nowadays boast publicly of the country's military power and regional influence, yet beneath the surface there is a great deal of concern regarding the multiple crises facing Iran. These range from the threat of United Nations sanctions to Iraq's civil war, to growing re-Talibanization of Afghanistan to Lebanon's political unrest, and, increasingly, signs of crisis with the Persian Gulf's other dominant power, Saudi Arabia."
[snip]
"Several measures could put an immediate halt to the visible deterioration of relations between the two countries, including the following:
  • An all-inclusive Persian Gulf conference on Iraq, including Iran and Iraq, hosted by the Gulf Cooperation Council. This would be instrumental in closing the cognitive gaps on both sides on the nature of security threats and what to do about them.
  • A sub-OIC Iraq group inclusive of Iran and Saudi Arabia to be formed to hammer out differences and to explore workable solutions for Iraq, perhaps by fathoming an OIC peacekeeping force for Iraq. Enhanced Iran-Saudi cooperation on Iraq within the OIC framework will help Iran to be perceived as an Islamist rather than a purely Shi'ite power, keen on the welfare of all Muslims irrespective of their sects. (See A role for the OIC in Iraq, Asia Times Online, April 17, 2004.)
  • A joint Iran-Saudi-Iraq council should meet periodically to discuss security matters and to offer ideas.

    In the absence of such initiatives, the likelihood of more sharpened hostile relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is almost a guarantee."
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