Oh boy....

Goats and Monkeys

How the stock market works.

Robert Reich says S & P is full of it.

“Is Standard and Poor’s Manipulating US Debt Rating to Escape Liability for the Mortgage Crisis?” By Scarecrow and Jane Hamsher.

And, of course, a cat.

Gah!

They would really like to hit and run

We want our money back!

Where have all the dollars gone?

Longgg time paa aa sssssing...

What is truly staggering about the 2008 market meltdown is not just its depth, but its breadth.

Virtually every asset class worldwide, except for gold and U.S. Treasury securities, lost value in 2008. Corporate and municipal bonds, foreign stocks, housing and commercial real estate all fell, in some cases off a cliff. Even oil and other commodities, which enjoyed big gains during the first half, ended the year lower.

Never was the phrase "nowhere to hide" more apt.

The decline in U.S. stocks approached record proportions.

Never was the phrase "nowhere to hide" more apt.

The decline in U.S. stocks approached record proportions.

-- The Dow Jones industrial average fell 33.8 percent, its worst showing since 1932, when it plunged almost 53 percent. Last year marked the Dow's fourth-worst annual performance since its 1896 inception.

-- The Standard & Poor's 500 index shed 38.5 percent in 2008, its third-worst year since 1928.

-- The Nasdaq composite index tumbled 40.5 percent, the worst annual loss since its launch in 1971. The tech-heavy index now stands 69 percent below its all-time high in March 2000.

To put it in dollar terms, the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index - which covers the vast majority of U.S. stocks - lost $6.9 trillion last year and $8.4 trillion since the market peaked in October 2007.

Coincidentally, $8.5 trillion is the amount the U.S. government and Federal Reserve have pledged to spend to rescue the financial system, according to a Bloomberg tally.

Foreign stocks - a favorite investment for U.S. investors in recent years - did even worse. Developed markets fell 45 percent in U.S. dollars, and emerging markets plunged 55 percent.

Falling through the cracks

Paul Krugman warns us that we are entering into the most dangerous period of all: the transition:

There is, however, another and more disturbing parallel between 2008 and 1932 — namely, the emergence of a power vacuum at the height of the crisis. The interregnum of 1932-1933, the long stretch between the election and the actual transfer of power, was disastrous for the U.S. economy, at least in part because the outgoing administration had no credibility, the incoming administration had no authority and the ideological chasm between the two sides was too great to allow concerted action. And the same thing is happening now.

How much can go wrong in the two months before Mr. Obama takes the oath of office? The answer, unfortunately, is: a lot.

[snip]

Most obviously, we’re in the midst of the worst stock market crash since the Great Depression: the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has now fallen more than 50 percent from its peak. Other indicators are arguably even more disturbing: unemployment claims are surging, manufacturing production is plunging, interest rates on corporate bonds — which reflect investor fears of default — are soaring, which will almost surely lead to a sharp fall in business spending. The prospects for the economy look much grimmer now than they did as little as a week or two ago.

Yet economic policy, rather than responding to the threat, seems to have gone on vacation. In particular, panic has returned to the credit markets, yet no new rescue plan is in sight. On the contrary, Henry Paulson, the Treasury secretary, has announced that he won’t even go back to Congress for the second half of the $700 billion already approved for financial bailouts. And financial aid for the beleaguered auto industry is being stalled by a political standoff.

How much should we worry about what looks like two months of policy drift? At minimum, the next two months will inflict serious pain on hundreds of thousands of Americans, who will lose their jobs, their homes, or both. What’s really troubling, however, is the possibility that some of the damage being done right now will be irreversible.

Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride....

Nice try, guys.

The economy was supposed to tank AFTER Bush left office, right?:

On Hannity & Colmes, Sean Hannity and Hugh Hewitt rehashed the discredited claim that President-elect Barack Obama is to blame for recent declines in the stock market. In fact, analysts have cited economic data on dropping retail sales, increasing unemployment, and other significant factors to explain recent stock-market declines.

There is utterly no way anyone can hang this disaster on Obama. This is the Bush recession. The Bush depression. All his.

What's that crashing sound?!!

Click the picture to go and see Tengrains's Hanky's Panky!! Playing now at theaters near you!

Smokey, Pooh, Boo Boo and Baloo

Approve this message.


Hijacked from Monkeyfister's blog.

We'll need this song when the recession/liquidity trap/depression/crash hits:

A snowball rolling down a hill

And getting bigger all the time:

Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman and the man who controls the central bank strings, made a game effort to explain the numbers to legislators here this week.

The big demographic bulge known as the baby boomers is getting ready to retire, he noted. Meaning they will start to collect social security, and will likely require considerably more medical attention.

Those two items represent an unfunded liability that can also be measured in the trillions, and no one has done a thing to prepare for it.

Bernanke delivered a simple lesson about the public ledger sheet. Basically, that the money has to come from somewhere.

Either taxes have to go up, and considerably, or spending has to be slashed on an unheard-of scale. Keep borrowing, and the public debt balloons so fantastically it becomes an unmanageable fiscal crisis.

"This is sort of like a snowball rolling down the hill," said Bernanke, striving for a metaphor to impress a panel of skeptical politicians. "It's already a pretty big snowball, but it's going to get a lot bigger a lot faster."

And:

A lot of wags have noticed that for the US stock market, bad news is frequently treated as good news. Unemployment is up, or industrial production is down, and stocks rally (due to attendant possibility seen in these reports of upcoming Fed interest-rate cuts). However, when major financial institutions have what are delicately called "liquidity issues" (ie, their loans aren't being paid back - they have no income), that is always bad news. What if the bank defaults, declares bankruptcy? Other banks that it had borrowed money from now won't be getting paid back, they'll lose whatever income stream they were receiving from the first bank. The same with that bank's creditors, and then other banks and so on.

This kind of cascading financial catastrophe is often called a "contagion", and with good reason. Like a virus, it can spread and bankrupt the entire financial system. It almost did in 1998, during the LTCM hedge-fund crisis; in 1929,in an era when the worldwide financial system was far less globalized and integrated than it is today, after the Great Crash it actually did, and so initiated the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Is it over? Not necessarily. Two little-known indicators that more investors should be cognizant of are what are called the VIX and VXN indicators. (Put these letters in the stock symbol line of your quote website; they should come up - watch how their values move inversely to stock prices.) Technically, what these two indices measure is what is called stock-option volatility (stock "beta", in jargon), but what they really tell smart investors is just how much fear there is in the markets. When these levels get very high (roughly above 30 in both indices; after the selling caused by the Enron corporate-management scandals of 2002, the VXN actually topped out over 70), it indicates that the market has seen so much fear-driven panic selling that, by the rules of what is called contrarian investment philosophy, stocks are due for a turnaround. As of the first weekend in March, neither index had reached those extreme levels.

So it's not China. It's not Nancy Pelosi, it's not the Easter Bunny, nor is it the War on Easter. It has been said that all market psychology, all market movement, is a continuous oscillation between the mental polar opposites of optimism and pessimism, between greed and fear, between Pollyanna and Cassandra. Since at least the market rally that started in early 2003, optimistic Pollyanna has ruled the markets, and greed has run rampant. As the markets wait for Fed chairman Ben Bernanke to put on his best Donna Reed mask to bail out the subprime lenders with the Bailey family's honeymoon money, Cassandra and her fear are ruling the day.

And:

While the most recent slump was set off by a 9.2 percent plunge in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index on Feb. 27, U.S. shares have been hit by concern economic growth will slow.

Last week, reports showed that in January new-home sales dropped by the most in 13 years, while the economy also expanded less than initially estimated in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, weighed in by saying profit margins at U.S. companies are peaking and the growth cycle is in a mature phase. He also said there's a ``one-third probability'' of a U.S. recession this year.

Meanwhile, delinquencies and defaults on subprime mortgages, or home loans made to people with limited credit records or higher debts, are at the highest in at least seven years, a Feb. 22 report by Barclays Capital showed.

``We were just due for a correction,'' said Steven Folker, who helps oversee $3 billion as managing director at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati. ``We may not have seen the worst'' of the slump.

Wheeeeee!

Update: Yen carry trade:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As investors wonder if the global market selloff is reaching a bottom, economists are keeping a close eye on one big trading bet that could send more seismic tremors through Wall Street.

For more than a decade, investors have profited by borrowing yen at ultra-low interest rates and using the funds to buy higher-yielding investments based in other currencies - known in Wall Street parlance as the yen carry trade.

But last week's market swoon has brought risk back into focus, and a number of these borrowers have been unwinding those trades lately.

"There's been complacency and under pricing of risk across the board," said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, a research firm. But now many big investors, as well as policy-makers, are bracing for more volatility in the markets, he said.