The Georgia war had Cheney's fingerprints on it?

What was a top national security aide to Vice President Dick Cheney doing in Georgia shortly before Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's troops engaged in what became a disastrous fight with South Ossetian rebels -- and then Russian troops?

[snip]

And yes, Joseph R. Wood, Cheney's deputy assistant for national security affairs, was in Georgia shortly before the war began.

But, the vice president's office says, he was there as part of a team setting up the vice president's just-announced visit to Georgia. (It is common for the White House to send security, policy, communications and press aides to each site the president and vice president will visit ahead of the trip, to begin making arrangements and planning the agenda.)

The White House disclosed on Monday that Cheney would hurry over to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine and Italy next week, almost immediately after addressing the Republican National Convention on Labor Day.

And so it was that a team from the vice president's office, U.S. security officials and others were in Georgia several days before the war began.

It had nothing to do, the vice president's office said, with a military operation that some have said suggests a renewal of the Cold War.

Uh huh. Right. And we should believe you exactly why? After all this time where nothing out of the Vice President's office has been the truth?

I don't think so.

THIS is supposed to make me feel better?

Make me feel safer? Are you kidding me?

SACRAMENTO -- Cindy McCain, wife of Sen. John McCain, is headed to the Republic of Georgia, where tensions between the government and Russia have sparked international concern and have become an issue on the presidential campaign trail.

McCain announced to a group of fundraisers in Sacramento that his wife was headed to the country, but the campaign did not provide any details about the trip.

McCain has been very aggressive in his condemnation of Russia's invasion of Georgia, and his campaign has been critical of Obama's more measured response when Russian tanks first pushed into the country.

McCain spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker confirmed Cindy McCain is enroute to the nation and said she is visiting as part of the World Food Program. She said she will meet with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and visit with wounded Georgian soldiers.

Since the outbreak of violence, several people seen as emissaries from the two campaigns have visited. McCain sent Sens. Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.); Sen. Barack Obama signed off on a trip by his new vice presidential running mate, Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.)

Upping the ante

Dick Cheney on the loose:

Washington, D.C. (AHN) - U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney will be meeting with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili next week, the White House said on Monday. The visit comes as the international community pressures Russia to honor a ceasefire agreement with Georgia, and after the Russian parliament issued a statement recognizing Georgia's breakaway regions as independent.

Cheney will be traveling to Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine and Italy beginning Sept. 2 to hold talks with officials "on issues of mutual interest." He will be the most senior U.S. politician to visit Georgia since the conflict with Russia erupted on Aug. 8.

Why does the term "mutual interest" scare me?

And Iran:

Tehran, Iran (AHN) - Iran's Defense Minister Gen. Mostafa Mohammad Majjar on Monday unveiled the production line of the Islamic state's all-domestically built, mid-sized submarine capable of firing missiles and torpedoes.

State television said the submarine, named "Ghaem," was the realization of the government's huge investments in the country's defense capabilities. Iran wants to achieve self-sufficiency in the defense area and equip its armed forces with modern weapons.

The report adds that the Iranian Navy earlier received two submarines named "Ghdair."

Georgia on my mind

Billmon at the Daily Kos on the fiasco of Georgia and Russia, egged on by the incompetence and thoughtlessness of US politicians:

And so, with an absolute minimum of democratic process, the United States of America committed its full prestige and power (if not, just yet, a legally binding guarantee) to the defense of the two former Soviet republics, even though the Russians have repeatedly stated that they regard NATO membership by either country as a direct threat to their own vital security interests. As others have already noted, this is as if China had unilaterally announced a military alliance with Mexico and Cuba. Actually it’s worse: Imagine the US reaction if China announced a military alliance with Mexico, after which the president of Mexico started dropping public hints about taking New Mexico back – by whatever means necessary. (And if that comparison seems unnecessarily paranoid, consider the history of Russia in the 20th century. Even paranoids have real enemies.)

A careful search of Nexus and Google reveals that the number of stories appearing in the pages of major US newspapers and magazines, or on the wires of major American news services, taking note of this fateful decision, equals exactly one: a brief item out of UPI’s Moscow bureau, warning of the Russian reaction. The Georgian and Ukranian press, on the other hand, gave the new law saturation coverage – encouraged by their respective governments, both of which issued official statements describing their future NATO admissions as, in effect, done deals.

If you have time, read the post. He offers a wealth of background and facts, and works through the tangle of connections and intrigue to present a very clear picture of the recent events.

crossposted at SteveAudio

Is that why Mikheil Saakashvili made a direct appeal to John McCain?

He thought he had the endorsement from the Senator? Promises from Bush to stand behind him?

So here comes McCain, trying to shove Obama aside as inexperienced and declaring that he knows these people personally:

BIRMINGHAM, Mich. — Senator John McCain turned aside questions today about whether Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, had strayed over the political line yesterday when he said that Senator Barack Obama had shown inexperience in his initial response to the war between Russia and Georgia.

And he tried to tamp down earlier charges from the Obama camp that he was responding to the Russian crisis with a belligerence that could only make the situation worse. He said he was taking a hard line on Russia but wasn’t trying to “reignite the Cold War.”

It was all part of a continuing effort by the McCain campaign to seize on the events overseas to appear presidential and in command on the world stage while at the same time not appearing to be political. At several points today, he emphasized that he had visited Georgia many times and was familiar with the players.

You know these players well, Senator? Could that be because of your lobbyist hired by your campaign for foreign relations? You know, the one who has Georgia as a client?:

WASHINGTON — John McCain's top foreign policy adviser, Randall Scheunemann, lobbied for the nation of Georgia for four years, including for about a year after he joined the Republican senator's presidential campaign staff in early 2007.

Georgia has paid Scheunemann's firm, Orion Strategies, LLC, nearly $900,000 since 2004, including $200,000 for an eight-month contract that began on May 1, two weeks after McCain issued a strong statement criticizing Russia and supporting Georgia.

Scheunemann took a leave from lobbying for Orion in March, two months before McCain barred active lobbyists from serving on his staff. He's still listed as Orion's president and owner.

[snip]

Saakashvili has been criticized for authoritarian tendencies following a crackdown on demonstrators last year, but McCain has been a staunch ally, sternly criticizing Moscow for its backing of pro-Russian, separatists.

On April 17 of this year, McCain issued a stern statement assailing "Russia's moves to undermine Georgian sovereignty." Two weeks later, Georgia gave Orion a $200,000 contract extension.

Gee. All this begs the answer to why on earth Saakashvili thought he'd have the Western democracies behind him when he kicked Putin's shins.

Did he really think Bush would attack Russia on his behalf? Did he think McCain could demand military action? Could it possibly be for political purposes? (Here, you attack Russia and I'll look presidential and play the foreign policy card which will trump anything Obama's got...Then Bush will help out...) Really?

Then look at this: (my bold)

Bank analyst forecast Georgian crisis 2 days early By Guy Faulconbridge:

MOSCOW, Aug 14 (Reuters) - The outbreak of war between Georgia and Russia shocked most of the world last week, but an investment bank analyst predicted it two days in advance.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili sent troops into the breakaway, pro-Russian region of South Ossetia on Aug. 7, on the eve of the Beijing Olympic Games, and Russia responded with overwhelming military force.

Geoff Smith, a Kiev-based analyst for Renaissance Capital investment bank, had anticipated the Georgian move with uncanny prescience in an e-mail two days earlier to a fellow strategist.

"So whaddaya think? I say Saakashvili is going to 'restore the territorial integrity of Georgia' five minutes before the opening ceremony starts in Beijing and dare the Russians to invade while the games are on?" the note said.

Reuters has seen a copy of the e-mail and confirmed its validity with both the sender and recipient of the message.

The Kremlin swiftly asserted its vastly superior military might and thousands of Russian troops pushed out Georgian troops from the rebel region. Russian units are still operating inside Georgia proper.

Russian sovereign Eurobond spreads, a measure of investment risk, widened on the hostilities, and shares tumbled.

"It was just intuition," Smith said by telephone. "I said nothing about the possible Russian response, but if you had asked me I would say that Moscow could not have taken it lying down," Smith said.

Explaining his reasoning, the former journalist said the upcoming presidential election in the United States could have played a role in Saakashvili's decision to send troops into South Ossetia.

"Certainly the next White House will not be as supportive of Saakashvili as this one and so if Saakashvili wanted to reunite Georgia he really had to do it this year and he was probably hoping the Olympic Games gave him the right cover," he said.

He refused to forecast how the crisis would end.

I think we know how this will end. Innocents will die, communities will be destroyed, oil will be controlled, money will be made.

We've seen this plot before, haven't we?

crossposted at American Street

Strange how everybody was on vacation ....

When some deluded leader attacks the Russian bear:



Did he really think Bush and his cohorts were actually going to help him? And what was the direct appeal to McCain? Who is NOT president....

And have you noticed how being on vacation is the default position of this administration?

And John McBush did have his flags and speech all buffed up and ready to go...

Robert Scheer: Was the War in Georgia a Neocon Election Ploy?

Is it possible that this time the October surprise was tried in August, and that the garbage issue of brave little Georgia struggling for its survival from the grasp of the Russian bear was stoked to influence the U.S. presidential election?

Before you dismiss that possibility, consider the role of one Randy Scheunemann, for four years a paid lobbyist for the Georgian government who ended his official lobbying connection only in March, months after he became Republican presidential candidate John McCain's senior foreign policy adviser.

Previously, Scheunemann was best known as one of the neoconservatives who engineered the war in Iraq when he was a director of the Project for a New American Century. It was Scheunemann who, after working on the McCain 2000 presidential campaign, headed the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, which championed the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

There are telltale signs that he played a similar role in the recent Georgia flare-up. How else to explain the folly of his close friend and former employer, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, in ordering an invasion of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, an invasion that clearly was expected to produce a Russian counterreaction? It is inconceivable that Saakashvili would have triggered this dangerous escalation without some assurance from influential Americans he trusted, like Scheunemann, that the United States would have his back. Scheunemann long guided McCain in these matters, even before he was officially running foreign policy for McCain's presidential campaign.

A war for political gain? What an odd concept....

Russia stops military action

After five days of fighting. What did Russia want to achieve?:

At the start of the conflict, there were questions as to whether the Kremlin had a clear strategy.

As it went on though, it seems to have settled on two main objectives: one military, and one political.

"The logical conclusion is to destroy the military capacity of Georgia," Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, said of the aims of Russia's campaign.

Now, presumably, Russia feels it has dealt a strong enough blow to the Georgian military. That objective has been achieved.

Deep mistrust

The unspoken political objective is the weakening, or perhaps removal, of Mikhail Saakashvili.

The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has denied that Russia had any intention to depose the Georgian president, while adding: "It would be better if he went."

Any formal negotiation is still a way off. And, given the clear level of mistrust between the Russian and Georgian governments, it is always possible that fighting may break out again.

But even before agreeing to take part in any talks, Russia has, in effect, imposed conditions: no negotiations with Mr Saakashvili, and no Georgian troops in South Ossetia.

So... what is Bush's stratergery?:

In remarks yesterday, President Bush strongly criticized Russia's actions in Georgia. Though press analyses widely suggest that the US has little leverage in the region, this morning the Russians announced a halt to the invasion, saying they had "punished" the Georgians. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports "criticism is mounting that the Bush administration didn't do enough to manage its strategic relationship with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili -- and keep him out of trouble." The Journal adds "many officials in the US government who have worked on the Russia relationship in recent years said...Bush lionized Mr. Saakashvili as a model for democracy in the region to a point that the Georgian leader may have held unrealistic expectations about the amount of support he might receive from the US and the West." These officials "also point to a lack of clarity governing the US-Georgia military relationship" and said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice "seemed so preoccupied with Iraq, Iran and the Arab-Israeli conflict that she didn't have time to fashion an effective response to Russia's muscle-flexing on its borders."

And:

After a buzz of criticism in the media and on the blogosphere -- Agence-France Presse reported that the secretary of State had been "noticeably absent on the diplomatic scene, having failed to interrupt her holidays" -- she returned yesterday to tackle the Russian attacks on Georgia.

And Cheney is again way out in rightwing field:

On Sunday, Vice President Dick Cheney said that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States."

So... Dick: 'Must not go unanswered'? Serious consequences?' With whose army are we going to answer Russia? Oops, sorry. You broke the military in your two self-inflicted quagmires. Are you itching to nuke just one country before you leave office? Is that it?

Like father, like son

Like G. H. W. Bush encouraging the Iraqis to rise up against Saddam and then not following up with US action while a massacre took place, it looks like Georgie has egged on Saakashvili to go kick Putin in the shins and then is standing back as the slaughter ensues:

Matthew Yglesias:

The Limits of Bluster»

Fred Kaplan, always worth reading, dives deeper into the issue of what was Shakashvili thinking and concludes that, basically, his big mistake was taking George W. Bush seriously:

It’s heartbreaking, but even more infuriating, to read so many Georgians quoted in the New York Times—officials, soldiers, and citizens—wondering when the United States is coming to their rescue. It’s infuriating because it’s clear that Bush did everything to encourage them to believe that he would.

And here's Saakashvili's response to the lack of response : (pdf)

Saakashvili, in an interview with CNN, vowed to fight on alone “until the end” if necessary, but added, “My people feel let down by world democracies.”

The Los Angeles Times goes on to call Saakashvili 'brash': (pdf)

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, a U.S.-trained attorney regarded by Washington as a pro-democracy wunderkind, has made a political career of brinkmanship with neighboring Russia. This time, he may have overplayed his hand. Saakashvili helped oust former Soviet Foreign Minister and Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze in the so-called Rose Revolution in 2003 and became Europe’s youngest president the following January at the age of 36.He has been jousting with Moscow ever since over control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two pro-Russian regions of his country.

Which pretty much hangs him out to dry.