There is considerable speculation and buzz in Washington today suggesting that the National Security Council has agreed in principle to proceed with plans to attack an Iranian al-Qods-run camp that is believed to be training Iraqi militants. The camp that will be targeted is one of several located near Tehran. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was the only senior official urging delay in taking any offensive action. The decision to go ahead with plans to attack Iran is the direct result of concerns being expressed over the deteriorating situation in Lebanon, where Iranian ally Hezbollah appears to have gained the upper hand against government forces and might be able to dominate the fractious political situation.
The White House contacted the Iranian government directly yesterday through a channel provided by the leadership of the Kurdish region in Iraq, which has traditionally had close ties to Tehran. The US demanded that Iran admit that it has been interfering in Iraq and also commit itself to taking steps to end the support of various militant groups. There was also a warning about interfering in Lebanon. The Iranian government reportedly responded quickly, restating its position that it would not discuss the matter until the US ceases its own meddling employing Iranian dissident groups. The perceived Iranian intransigence coupled with the Lebanese situation convinced the White House that some sort of unambiguous signal has to be sent to the Iranian leadership, presumably in the form of cruise missiles. It is to be presumed that the attack will be as “pinpoint” and limited as possible, intended to target only al-Qods and avoid civilian casualties.
The decision to proceed with plans for an attack is not final. The President will still have to give the order to launch after all preparations are made.
It's that last sentence that scares the &^#$ out of me.
This morning, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) appeared on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, where Pat Buchanan asked him whether he believed “the United States states should conduct air strikes on the Iranian Quds force in Iran if they do not stop” interfering in Iraq. Lieberman replied that he “hoped” the U.S. would not have to strike at “the people who are responsible for killing Americans,” but said that the Iranians should “have in mind that it’s a distinct possibility.
Rawalpindi, Pakistan (AHN) - At least 30 people were killed and dozens injured in twin suicide car bombings in the city of Rawalpindi, Pakistan, on Saturday. The simultaneous attacks were reportedly carried out by militants on an Army checkpoint and a bus carrying members of the country's powerful Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency (ISI). According to the local authorities, the militants used cars to carry out the deadly attacks.
Afghanistan:
Kabul, Afghanistan (AHN) - A suicide attack in Afghanistan killed one Italian soldier and six Afghans, including three children. The attack happened while a crowd gathered to watch soldiers building a bridge.
At least nine people were injured in the attack. It took place in the Paghman area. The soldier died while being transferred to a military hospital in Kabul.
Some of the victims were reportedly shot. Witnesses said some of the soldiers fired at people during the attack, but a regional police commander said many of the victims were hit with ball bearings packed into the bomb. A doctor who treated some of the victims, however, told The Associated Press that at least four had been hit by bullets.
More than 130 suicide attacks have occurred in Afghanistan this year. More than 6,000 people have died from the violence.
Bush's bestest friend Howard goes down in flames:
Sydney, Australia (AHN) - With 70 percent of the votes counted, sitting Australian Prime Minister John Howard has already conceded to opponent, Kevin Rudd in parliamentary elections held Saturday. "We've bequeathed to [Rudd] a nation that is stronger and prouder and more prosperous than it was 11 and a half years ago," Howard was quoted as saying by BBC News. Howard confirmed that he already called Rudd to congratulate him on his emerging victory. The 50-year-old Rudd, standard-bearer of the labor Party, had shown strength of winning over Howard throughout the campaign period. Opinion polls earlier suggested that most Aussies were already tired of Howard's leadership, and wanted to give a fresh mandate to a new leader.
Update: Glenn Greenwald has the final say on Howard's magnificent defeat.
Lebanon:
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) -- Lebanon awoke a republic without a president Saturday amid mounting worries over a power vacuum that has intensified the nation's yearlong political turmoil.
The capital was calm and shops opened for business as usual the morning after a tumultuous day that saw President Emile Lahoud depart without a successor after announcing he was handing over security powers to the army.
Lahoud's final announcement saying the country is in a "state of emergency" was rejected by the rival, pro-Western Cabinet of Prime Minister Fuad Saniora.
The government rejection created fresh confusion in an already unsettled situation, which many Lebanese fear could explode into violence between supporters of Saniora's government and the pro-Syria opposition led by the Shiite militant group Hezbollah.
"Lahoud's term ends in a republic without a president," read the headline of Lebanon's leading An-Nahar newspaper. Another daily, Al-Balad, printed an empty photo frame on its front page, symbolizing the political vacuum.
The departure of Lahoud, a staunch ally of the Syrian regime during his nine years in office, was a long-sought goal of the government installed by parliament's anti-Syria majority, which has been trying to put one of its own in the presidency.
Hezbollah and other opposition groups have blocked legislators from electing a new president by boycotting ballot sessions, leaving parliament without the required quorum.
The fight has put Lebanon into dangerous, unknown territory: Both sides are locked in bitter recriminations, accusing the other of breaking the constitution, and they are nowhere near a compromise on a candidate to become head of state.
The army command refused to comment on the developments. The military, under its widely respected chief, Gen. Michel Suleiman, has sought to remain neutral in the political chaos, and Lahoud's statement did not give it political powers.
Iraq:
BAGHDAD (AP) -- The U.S. military on Saturday blamed the deadly bombing of a pet market in Baghdad on Iranian-backed Shiite militants, raising concerns that escalating activity by Shiite extremists could jeopardize a relative calm that has offered new hopes for Iraqis after years of turmoil.
The bomb, which was hidden in a box of small birds, exploded Friday morning as Iraqis were strolling past animal stalls and bird cages at Baghdad's al-Ghazl market. The market had recently re-emerged as a popular venue as security has increased, raising hopes for calm in the capital after years of turmoil.
Police and hospital officials said at least 15 people were killed and 56 wounded, including four policemen, making it the deadliest in Baghdad in more than two months.
U.S. military spokesman Rear Adm. Gregory Smith said the bomb was packed with ball bearings to maximize casualties, and bore the hallmarks of a so-called special group, the military term for Shiite militia fighters who have been trained by Iran and have broken with radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who called on his supporters to stand down in August.
He said the military believes the Shiite extremists were hoping al-Qaida in Iraq would be held responsible for the attack so Iraqis would turn to them for protection.
Nice legacy there, George. So, now that you are looking at the last year of your second term, and all the term papers have been handed in, all the finals graded, what are you going to do?:
The US has confirmed it will host a conference on Middle East peace next week aimed at relaunching negotiations to create a Palestinian state. Invitations have been issued to Israel, the Palestinians, the UN and key Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Syria. But Washington is still trying to persuade Arab states to send delegates.
I think this will be filed under too fucking little, too fucking late, Georgie.
BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) - Iraqi refugees face a wide array of problems in the Middle East, from lack of basic assistance to political obstacles, and are being increasingly detained in Lebanon, a U.S. group advocating refugee protection said in a report Monday.
The report by the Washington-based Refugees International was issued after its team visited Lebanon, Syria and Egypt for a month to gauge what homeless Iraqis deal with.The report highlighted the plight of Iraqis in Lebanon, where an estimated 50,000 Iraqi refugees live. Lebanon's history of sectarian violence and its stated refusal to act as an asylum country has led authorities to deny Iraqis any rights or access to services, the report said.
It said authorities began «systematically arresting and detaining those who are in Lebanon illegally» since May, when government troops battled al-Qaida inspired militants holed up in a Palestinian refugee camp in the country's north. «The government has taken to detaining Iraqis, placing them in jail with common criminals,» the report said.
Lebanese government did not immediately comment the report but security officials, speaking on conditions of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to media, said about half of the estimated 1,000 jailed illegal migrants were Iraqi. Most of them likely face deportation because the country's main prison is packed 50 percent over its 2,500-inmate capacity, the officials said.
The Iraqis are picked up for overstaying their visas or for entering the country illegally, the report said.
Human rights activists say the Iraqis are generally jailed for a month, then offered the choice of returning to Iraq or staying on in prison _ until they give up and opt to go home.
As the fourth year of war nears its end, the Middle East's largest refugee crisis since the Palestinian exodus from Israel in 1948 is unfolding in a climate of fear, persecution and tragedy.
Nearly 2 million Iraqis -- about 8 percent of the prewar population -- have embarked on a desperate migration, mostly to Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees. The refugees include large numbers of doctors, academics and other professionals vital for Iraq's recovery. Another 1.7 million have been forced to move to safer towns and villages inside Iraq, and as many as 50,000 Iraqis a month flee their homes, the U.N. agency said in January.
Update: Fleeing from this:
BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- The Iraqi Interior Ministry estimates that about 1,000 people have been killed throughout Iraq in the past week due to gunbattles, drive-by shootings and bomb attacks, a ministry official said Sunday.
The figure includes members of militia and terrorist groups, civilians and Iraqi security forces. The official said the data was gathered by Iraq's Interior, Health and Defense ministries.
Update 2/5: Some refugees cannot get Syria to give them shelter:
More than 700 Palestinian refugees who have been driven out of Iraq are stranded in squalid tented camps on the Syrian border. Damascus is refusing to let them in, despite the wintry conditions and limited supplies of food, water, fuel and medicines.
"This is a human tragedy," Tayseer Nasrallah, head the of the refugee affairs committee in the West Bank city of Nablus, protested yesterday. Other Palestinians charged the Iraqis with ethnic cleansing. Officials in Ramallah said at least 180 Palestinians had been murdered in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein.
Human Rights Watch reported last week that only 15,000 of the 34,000 Palestinian refugees living in Baghdad before 2003 were still there. "They are harassed by the Iraqi government and are targeted by Shia militias because of the benefits they used to receive from Saddam Hussein's government and their perceived support for the insurgency in Iraq," said the New York-based organisation.
Juan Cole and The New Middle East Cold War: Saudi/Israel/Lebanon versus Iran/Syria/Iraq/Hizbullah:
"Helene Cooper with Hassan Fattah of the NYT has the scoop that Saudi King Abdullah told US VP Dick Cheney two weeks ago that if the US withdrew precipitately from Iraq, the kingdom would have little choice but to support the Sunni Arab guerrillas. The Saudi government had pledged to the US not to do so as long as US troops were in Iraq. But it is alleged that Saudi oil millionaires privately already send money to the guerrillas. Saudis, as Wahhabi Muslims, belong to a sect that is to the right of Sunnism. But the Wahhabi tradition dislikes Shiites and in any Sunni-Shiite struggle, the Wahhabis will come in on the Sunni side.
This item is no surprise, of course, and I have brought up this likelihood a number of times myself. What is remarkable is that it is being stated by the Saudi leadership and published in the press. The Saudis are usually circumspect. If they are leaking this sort of thing, their hair must be on fire with anxiety."
