A prediction for this summer

Anyone keeping score?

Countries around the Mediterranean are set to suffer up to five times as many dangerously hot summer days if greenhouse gas emissions continue their relentless rise, say researchers.

France will see the greatest increase in extreme summer temperatures, they predict.

Noah Diffenbaugh at Purdue University, US, and colleagues used a climate model for the Mediterranean region, which was so precise that they were able to resolve regional changes in temperature for every 20 square kilometres.

The model calculated an overall increase in temperature and also an increase in number of extremely hot days. Of all the Mediterranean countries, France will experience the greatest increase in extremely hot temperatures – in some French regions, summer days will be 8°C hotter than they were between 1961 and 1989.

Dangerously hot

But the thin strip of coast around the Med will see the largest increase in the number of dangerously hot days – up to 40 more days per year along the coastlines of Spain, Egypt and Libya.

The article finishes by reminding us:

...what makes the Mediterranean region so sensitive to climate change is a "surface moisture feedback": as temperatures rise, the landmass not only gets hotter, it gets drier too. "This means there is less evaporative cooling," explains Diffenbach.

The 2003 heatwave is thought to have killed 35,000 people across Europe, nearly 15,000 of which were in France.

Update 6/21:

ATHENS, Greece, June 21 Sweltering weather blanketed much of southeastern Europe Thursday, bringing a deadly storm to Vienna and power problems in Greece.

[snip]

In Athens, temperatures were expected to hit 110 degrees by the weekend, Ekathimerini reported. The Public Power Corporation Wednesday asked Athens residents to shut off air conditioners and refrain from cooking to save energy.

A "yellow code," signifying dangerous heat, remained in effect in Bucharest and southwestern Romania, hotnews.ro reported. Daytime temperatures were around 100 degrees. Authorities set up tents to provide emergency first aid in many cities in the region.

A severe drought has also hit Romania, with the government declaring the southwest a disaster area.

In Athens, a meteorologist told Ekathimerini that city residents should try to get out into the suburbs if they can. Matthaios Santamouris of Athens University said temperatures are likely to be 15 degrees lower away from the city.

The heat is on

LONDON - This year is set to be the hottest on record worldwide due to global warming and the El Nino weather phenomenon, Britain's Meteorological Office said on Thursday.

The Met Office said the combination of factors would likely push average temperatures this year above the record set in 1998. 2006 is set to be the sixth warmest on record globally.

"This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world," said Met Office scientist Katie Hopkins.

The world's 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1994 in a temperature record dating back a century and a half, according to the United Nations' weather agency.

Britain's Met Office makes a global forecast every January with the University of East Anglia, and said it expected the world's average temperature to be 0.54 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 long-term average of 14.0 degrees.

There is a 60 percent probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year, 1998, which itself was 0.52 degrees above the long-term average it said in a statement.

Update: Spiegel Online has the graphs.